Our Best Ideas section highlights potential trades that iFi AI believes have the highest probability of delivering positive returns. To do this, we combine high forecasted positive returns, confidence, and historical accuracy. We believe this mix is a winning recipe to identify not just what securities may have the highest rates of return but also the highest probability of a forecast being correct.
The two biggest drivers of the best ideas are the forecast and the confidence score, as that score already captures the historical forecast accuracy and volatility of the security. Accuracy scores primarily measure whether the forecasted positive or negative direction was correct and secondarily the difference between the forecasted value and actual price.
When you view iFi AI’s best ideas, expect to see securities that have both high forecasts and high confidence scores. You will not see securities with extremely high forecasts and low confidence scores.
For example, a security with a high forecast and low confidence score does not mean that the forecast will not come true, just that the probability is low, similar to how one might describe a venture investment. Although we provide our best ideas, each investor will need to decide what level of risk is most appropriate for them, which is why we provide confidence scores and tools like the screeners and heatmaps.
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